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CurrencyThoughts
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CurrencyThoughts is a stand-alone independent advisory service that integrates all global financial markets and the macroeconomic trends that make them tick.
897 articles
Big Picture Reflections on Today's U.S. Data
From CurrencyThoughts, 7 month ago, Read 0 times. Similar articles
People who trade currencies daily put a heavy emphasis on how reported data compare to street forecasts, and whether a number is deemed bullish or bearish hinges on that immediate litmus test. Today’s upward revision of second-quarter U.S. GDP growth to 1.3% from 1.0% was a bigger improvement than predicted. New U.S. jobless claims of [...]
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Quarter-End Distortions
From CurrencyThoughts, 7 month ago, Read 0 times. Similar articles
Markets can get flooded around quarter-end periods by a rush of data releases and transactions inspired by accounting objectives. Investors continue to watch the unfolding European debt crisis. Germany’s parliament is expected to approve the expanded EFSF facility today, but the vote will be a barometer of the support Chancellor Merkel retains from her own [...]
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German Inflation
From CurrencyThoughts, 7 month ago, Read 0 times. Similar articles
Consumer prices in Germany according to preliminary estimates advanced 0.4% seasonally adjusted in September, and the 12-month inflation rate climbed 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, a three-year high. Energy was responsible for somewhat over a third of all on-year inflation. Moreover, the momentum of German inflation has been subsiding as attested by an annualized three-month [...]
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Another Speed Bump in Greek Bailout Talks
From CurrencyThoughts, 7 month ago, Read 0 times. Similar articles
Overnight reports have been confusing on the negotiations over a bailout plan for Greece, specifically over how much debt to write off in a default. The head of the German IFO Institute said Greece needs to leave the euro area as the only feasible way it can recoup competitiveness. The dollar is lower, consistent with [...]
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Recessionary Forces at Play in the United States
From CurrencyThoughts, 7 month ago, Read 0 times. Similar articles
In the see-sawing ride of world share prices, this week has seen impressive and welcome upward movement following last week’s significant downsizing. Optimism that a workable resolution of the European debt crisis has been the catalyst, although the basis for that optimism remains very fragile. The other critical problem for the world economy is the [...]
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Revived Appetite for Risk, or a Dead Cat Bounce'
From CurrencyThoughts, 7 month ago, Read 0 times. Similar articles
Markets rallied overnight, relieved at indications that progress is being made by European debt crisis negotiators to bulk up EFSF resources in ways that will not need the approval of national parliaments or continuing heavy participation of the ECB. Warning: the European debt saga is full of prior instances of dashed hopes. This week’s better [...]
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Turning Point in Israeli Monetary Policy
From CurrencyThoughts, 7 month ago, Read 0 times. Similar articles
The Bank of Israel surprised analysts with its first announced benchmark interest rate cut since March 2009. In eight steps during the Great Recession, the key Israeli rate was slashed by 375 basis points from a prior cyclical high of 4.25%. Israel was also aggressive in tightening subsequently. A hike from 0.5% to 0.75% on [...]
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Greek Debt Crisis Drags on into a New Week
From CurrencyThoughts, 7 month ago, Read 0 times. Similar articles
Weekend talks around the IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington failed to produce any dramatic action to stop Europe’s debt crisis. German Chancellor Merkel said a Greek default is possible. Investors speculating that such would cut that nation’s debt in half. Stocks slumped in the Pacific Rim but rose so far in Europe. Share prices dropped [...]
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Unlikely to Stop the Risk Aversion Express
From CurrencyThoughts, 8 month ago, Read 0 times. Similar articles
Risk aversion, which benefits the dollar and yen, has taken hold of all financial markets, and confidence-boosting factors are nowhere in sight. First, the economic backdrop among advanced industrialized nations recently began a fifth year of bleakness. Substantial balance sheet deleveraging remains to be done, and these economies still cannot sustain recoveries without macroeconomic support. [...]
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Only a Brief Respite after G20 Communique
From CurrencyThoughts, 8 month ago, Read 0 times. Similar articles
Today is the first day of the semi-annual IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington. G20 finance ministers and central bankers released a statement overnight that promised a coordinated response to five identified downside risks: Contagion from sovereign debt stresses. Financial systems fragility. Market turbulence. Weak economic growth. Unacceptably high unemployment. European share prices initially rose after [...]
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